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Science News

Scientists: Big Quake Likely in Calif.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008 4:33:39 PM
By ALICIA CHANG

Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) refers to an illustration during a news conference Monday, April 14, 2008, at the University of Southern California, Davidson Conference Center U.S. Geological Survey. California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong temblor by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide forecast of the seismic threat. (AP Photo/Nick Ut)LOS ANGELES (AP) - California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said in the first statewide temblor forecast.

New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.


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